Sunday, November 22, 2015

They Picked Six: PIAA final class numbers for 2016-2018 (Projections included before upgrades)

It's a pick six of a different kind.

The 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 enrollment cycle marks the first season the PIAA will have six classes in football among a list of other sports. They also added additional classes in other sports including girls volleyball.

Boys and girls Basketball, Baseball, and Softball joined football with six classes.

Friday, the enrollment parameters were released for all sports with football breaking down as follows:
A -- 140 and below
AA -- 141-200
AAA -- 201-282
AAAA -- 283-397
AAAAA -- 398-563
AAAAAA -- 564 and above

How does this effect Districts 5 and 6? Let's start by taking a look at how District 5's alignment could look like (All numbers are based upon the current enrollment cycle).

A (5) -- Berlin Brothersvalley (126), Conemaugh Township (116), Meyersdale (118), Shade (73), Windber (104).
AA (4) -- Everett (174), North Star (142), Northern Bedford (144), Tussey Mountain (143)
AAA (2) -- Bedford (255), Chestnut Ridge (227)
AAAA (1) -- Somerset (319)

Class A might get away with having their own postseason, but there is a good chance that District 5 might have to form a subregion with District 6 in each of the classifications. Everyone who is in AA-AAAA in this plan will jump up by at least one class.

What about District 6?
A (19) -- Bishop Carroll (82), Bishop Guilfoyle (118), Blacklick Valley (82), Blairsville (126), Claysburg-Kimmel (106), Conemaugh Valley (104), Ferndale (76), Glendale (98), Homer Center (107), Juniata Valley (95), Moshannon Valley (105), Northern Cambria (139), Penns Manor (111), Portage (83), Purchase Line (125), Saltsburg (86), St. Joseph's (46), United (136), Williamsburg (62).
AA (8) -- Bellwood-Antis (154), Bishop McCort (148), Cambria Heights (169), Marion Center (170), West Branch (162), Westmont Hilltop (173), Mount Union (183), Southern Huntingdon (169).
AAA (12) -- Bald Eagle Area (206), Central Cambria (224), Central (232), Forest Hills (240), Huntingdon (258), Juniata (230), Ligonier Valley (218),  Penn Cambria (206), Penns Valley (207), Philipsburg-Osceola (230), Richland (202), Tyrone (229).
AAAA (2) -- Bellefonte (341), Johnstown (324).
AAAAA (2) -- Hollidaysburg (402), Central Mountain (505).
AAAAAA (3) -- Mifflin County (617), Altoona (933)*, State College (866).

*-Altoona qualifies for the playoffs through the WPIAL.

Class A-AAA could get away with hosting their own playoff, but because of the numbers, A-AAAA probably will have to merge to form a subregional with District 5. Five-A and Six-A are probably looking at subregionals as well or possibly a state only tournament.

Schools are not required to play in the classification they qualify for if they're Class 5A or lower, BUT they can't play down in classification. The initial numbers are due out Monday with schools having until December 15 to upgrade.

Click here for the enrollment parameters for each of the PIAA sports.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Eastern League Postseason: The Final Push

Just a week remains in the Eastern League's regular season, and that means for nine of the 12 teams a shot at playing after Labor Day remains in place.

The picture in the league's Eastern Division is a pretty clear, while the West remains a mess with five teams still having a chance.

Breaking Down The Race

Lets start with the Eastern Division first.

The Reading Fightin' Phils are 77-56 entering the final week of play, and are currently four games ahead of the Binghamton Mets (73-60).

Both teams have a four game series starting Monday night in Reading, which in all likelihood will decide who gets home field in the Eastern Division playoff series.

The Phils will wrap up the regular season with a road trip to Richmond, while Binghamton welcomes Altoona to town and both series will be four game sets.

Trenton (69-64) however, isn't out of the picture yet. While the odds are not the greatest, they do have plenty of help coming this week in the form of a four game series with New Britain and five games with New Hampshire (doubleheader Saturday) all at home.

New Hampshire (64-67) is on the brink of elimination entering Monday's games. 

The Western Division is where things are going to be a bit more interesting.

First place Bowie (75-58) and Altoona (71-63) currently hold the two playoff spots in the division, and are the front runners for the top spot in the postseason.

Akron (68-66), though, is still in the thick of the race, while Harrisburg remains a long shot (64-70). 

Lets start with the Curve and Baysox. Bowie holds a 4 1/2 game lead entering Monday night and a four game series with Altoona.

Depending on the number of wins the Curve grab in this series, that could push the race for the top spot into the weekend. Bowie has the more favorable match up between the two over Labor Day weekend when it travels to Bowie for a five-game series which includes a twin bill on Saturday.

The Curve as mentioned earlier will head to New York to meet the Mets.

Don't rule out Akron from a chance at the postseason, either. The RubberDucks will have four games with the SeaWolves, before playing at Harrisburg.

Postseason set up

The top two teams in each division will make the Eastern League playoffs, and each series will be a best-of-five with a 2-3 format. Games 1 and 2 will played the lowered seeded team with  games 3-5 (as needed) will be played at the division champion.

The winners of each series will head to the league championship series where home field alternates and is determined base on what number year it is (odd or even). This season, the Western Division champion will have home field for the league's final event.

Projected schedule -- Division playoff will take Sept. 9-13, and the championship is projected to go Sept. 14-15, 17-19 pending teams involved.

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Curve Column: There's roster turnover, but plenty of experience remains

Over more than a week, five members of the Curve roster made their way from Altoona to Triple-A Indianapolis. Most notably the Pirates top prospect, pitcher Tyler Glasnow, and future first baseman Josh Bell (No. 4) headlined the Curve's recent roster moves.

INF Dan Gamache, utility man Andy Vasquez, and pitcher Jeremy Bleich rounded out the transactions which sent players from Altoona to Indy.

The Pirates had no choice with Bell and Glasnow but to promote them at some point this season.

Pedro Alvarez is entering the final year of his contract in 2016, and may be on his way out depending on money, and whether the Pirates see him as part of their future. That means that Bell is probably going to take that spot at some point next June after the Super 2 deadline.

Pitchers Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon will miss or will most likely miss the remainder of the season. Kingham underwent Tommy John surgery, while Taillon who was recovering from that operation, suffered a hernia which is expected to last two months.

With A.J. Burnett most likely gone because of his retirement at the end of the year, that means at least one starting spot in the rotation will be open next year. Glasnow should be in one of those spots after Super 2.

It may take away a lot of playoff experience for Altoona, but at the end of the day this is what the minors are for: teaching, development, and promoting the future to the big leagues.

While they lose key pieces, some of the players who remain on the roster also have playoff experience. They even played in the postseason under current manager Tom Prince.

Last season, several players on this year's roster, were part of a playoff push with high-A Bradenton. Even some of those who didn't play with the Marauders have already played a key role with the Curve.

Starting pitcher Steven Brault has gone 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA in his first nine starts. He was promoted in June after going 4-1 in 13 starts with a 3.02 ERA with the Marauders.

Brault was acquired by Pittsburgh in the deal which sent Travis Snider to the Baltimore Orioles, which the Pirates also received pitcher Stephen Tarpley (who has gone 8-2 with a 2.32 ERA at low-A West Virginia).

Shortstop Adam Frazier has torn the cover off the ball since joining the Curve in May. He's now swinging an amazing .348, and has floated around that mark since June.

Second baseman Max Moroff -- who is currently third in batting average -- is hitting .311 and leads the Eastern League in hits with 127.

Other names who have seen postseason action include outfielder Barrett Barnes along with pitchers Jason Creasy, and Chad Kuhl.

None of them are Josh Bell or Tyler Glasnow. There is no indicator that No. 3 prospect OF Austin Meadows or C Reese McGuire (No. 5) are on the way, but the Curve roster is still full of players who could get the team to its first postseason berth since 2010.

Saturday, August 1, 2015

The highest payroll doesn't guarantee anything any more

As Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline passed, some Pirates fans are questioning why Pittsburgh isn't trying to put their payroll amongst the highest in the sport.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly explained to fans at a function Thursday in Altoona that the organization won't be at the top of MLB in payroll.

It's not necessarily a bad thing, either.

Take a look at the World Series champions in the last five years:

The San Francisco Giants -- the model franchise for success in that time frame -- won three of those fall classics. Their payroll ranked ninth (2010), eighth (2012), and seventh (2014) in each of those seasons.

Now some of you will say that St. Louis is the model, but the Giants have not only made the World Series, they also won each time they've appeared since then.

Speaking of the Cardinals, they were 11th in 2011,  and the Red Sox had the highest of the most recent crop, ranked fourth in 2013.

The last time a team with the highest payroll won a title, was the New York Yankees in 2009. Since the turn of the decade, no team with the most money spent has won a championship, and the Yankees remain the only team to have done it since the turn of the century.

Payroll ranking 2000-2008
Phillies 2008 -- 12th
Red Sox 2007 -- 2nd
Cardinals 2006 -- 11th
White Sox 2005 -- 13th
Red Sox 2004 -- 2nd
Marlins 2003 -- 25th
Angels 2002 -- 15th
Diamondbacks 2001 -- 8th
Yankees 2000 -- 1st

If the Pirates were to go out and sign monster contacts for big names in the league, they have to be right, or else it ends up setting them back at least three-to-five years.

How many of you who watched them during the dark years remember Jason Kendall? The former catcher of the Pirates was signed to a six-year, $60 million deal in 2000.

With the assets the Pirates had, it ended up setting the Pirates back as they went 69-93 that same season. The core of that group which included names such as Brian Giles and Kris Benson, won no more then 75 games in 2003.

Does this change the fact they need to do everything in their power to win? No, they just have to find the right fits at the right price.

If the Pirates were to acquire Cole Hamels (who went to Texas) or David Price (who now plays in Toronto), it would've likely required them trading away some combination of Tyler Glasnow, Cole Tucker, Alen Hanson, Josh Bell, or any other big name prospect.

They simply can't afford to mortgage their future for a big name piece, because if the deal doesn't work out, that can also put them back three-to-five years.

Using mostly homegrown talent, the Pirates have made back-to-back postseason appearances and were just one game away from reaching the NLCS in 2013.

Whether the fans like it or not, Neal Huntington and the entire baseball operations department must build the team through the draft, and some inexpensive free agents.

The good news is that championships can be won through drafting.

San Francisco's core is much of what they drafted and developed. Pitcher Madison Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey, and second baseman Joe Panik are among a list of players drafted by the Giants.

Right now, 13 players on the Pirates roster are homegrown talent, and that's the best group Pittsburgh has seen take the field in over 20 years.

When building a championship contender, it's not about the quantity of the money you spend, it's the quality. So far, the Pirates have done a quality job building their team for this season, and the future.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Capacity Problem: Why Penn State's Football Schedule Needs Greater Thought

It's no surprise. Penn State has 31 athletic teams, and most of the money comes from football to fund those additional programs.

The only other sports that have turned profits are men's basketball and men's ice hockey.

For seven Saturdays a year, thousands flock to Happy Valley for football weekends. Lately however, a program that once drew fans with no trouble for years, has seen a glaring issue arise:

More and more of those seats that were once filled, have now gone empty.

In 2011, the athletic department started what is known as the "STEP" program (Seat Transfer Equity Program). What this meant, was that season ticket holders at Penn State were required to pay donation on top of the tickets prices to see all seven home contests.

That same season, the overall capacity of Beaver Stadium dropped from 107,282, to 106,572.

The good news for the Nittany Lion faithful who made the trip to Beaver Stadium is that Alabama was in the building for a game, which the Crimson Tide won, 27-11.

But the news on the non-conference schedule front hasn't been much better. In fact, it's been terrible.

Indiana State, and Eastern Michigan were the other two out of conference match ups that season. Both games drew crowds of 96,461, and 95,636 respectively.

The last time the Nittany Lions drew less than 100,000 fans for a game before drubbing the Sycamores? September 10, 2005 against Cincinnati, and that was during one of their last two Big Ten Championship seasons.

That season they also hosted South Florida and Central Michigan.

But also in 2011, the Jerry Sandusky Scandal broke, and that made things even more difficult for the program.

The program was handed sanctions that were ultimately seen as crippling. Those included a four-year bowl, and reduction in scholarships before being lifted.

Ohio was the Nittany Lions first game after the sanctions were handed down, a game which only drew a crowd of 97,186 fans. The only game that year to draw over 100,000 fans that year came against Ohio State, which was also serving sanctions (107,818).

Eastern Michigan, Central Florida, and Kent State made up the 2013 Non-conference slate which averaged around 93,000 fans.

In 2014, Penn State hosted Akron, Massachusetts, and Temple, all three of which averaged around 99,000 fans per game (the Owls drew 100,171).

This means that Penn State has to find a way to get around 10,000 more fans to attend games, whether they're season ticket holders or not.

That future doesn't look good when it comes to the non-conference schedule.

This season alone, Penn State will host Buffalo (5-6), San Diego State (7-6), and Army (4-8). All of those teams were a collective 16-20 in 2014.

Pitt returns for the first time to the schedule since 2000 starting in 2016, and that may help draw fans because of the history between the two schools.

Outside of that, the Nittany Lions will welcome Georgia State, Appalachian State, Kent State, Akron, and a recent regular on their slate, Temple.

Now, Penn State is helped when it comes to the Big Ten because they'll have visits from Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State every other year.

But what are they supposed to do when that portion of the schedule isn't there?

Penn State's best non-conference home game to look forward to isn't coming until 2023 when West Virginia comes to State College.

When it comes to the new College Football Playoff, if the Nittany Lions are on the bubble for the playoff, non-conference games can become a factor if teams are that close.

Who'd you play? Who'd you beat?

They don't need to play three major conference opponents, but to help their chances at making the playoff, and keep fans in the seats, mixing in a marquee non-conference opponent every couple of years can help in more than just on field success.

Winning will help draw fans to Happy Valley, but at the same, they need to bring in more marquee games outside the Big Ten.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Football Expansion: How a PIAA Vote Would Shape The Future of District 5 and 6

Six years ago, the PIAA considered expanding its number of football classifications from four, to six.

Fast forward today, that same possibility is back on the table.

District 9 representative Bob Tonkin has proposed adding two classes beginning with the 2016-2017 school year. The 2015 season will not be affected.

Enrollment numbers for the 2014-15 and 2015-16 academic years in football (numbers courtesy of the PIAA website)
1-174 -- A
175-299 -- AA
300-492 -- AAA
493-Above -- AAAA

What the numbers would be under Tonkin's proposal
1-147 -- A
148-209 -- AA
210-300 -- AAA
301-409 -- AAAA
410-608 -- AAAAA
609-Above -- AAAAAA

How Districts 5 and 6 would be classified under the proposed system (With no voluntary upgrade based on current enrollment). Teams who would move are indicated in BOLD

District 5
A (8) -- Berlin Brothersvalley (126), Conemaugh Township (116), Meyersdale (118), North Star (142), Northern Bedford (144), Shade (73), Tussey Mountain (143), Windber (104).
AA (1) -- Everett (174)
AAA (2) -- Bedford (255), Chestnut Ridge (227)
AAAA (1) -- Somerset (319)

No members of District 5 would be considered AAAAA or AAAAAA. Everett, Bedford, Chestnut Ridge, and Somerset will likely be looking at being part of sub-regionals for the state playoffs.

District 6
A (19) -- Bishop Carroll (82), Bishop Guilfoyle (118), Blacklick Valley (82), Blairsville (126), Claysburg-Kimmel (106), Conemaugh Valley (104), Ferndale (76), Glendale (98), Homer-Center (107),  Juniata Valley (95), Moshannon Valley (105), Northern Cambria (139), Penns Manor (111), Portage (83), Purchase Line (125), Saltsburg (98), St. Joseph's Academy (46), United (136), Williamsburg (62).
AA (12) -- Bellwood-Antis (154), Bishop McCort (148), Cambria Heights (169), Marion Center (170), West Branch (162), Westmont Hilltop (173), Bald Eagle Area (206), Mount Union (183), Penn Cambria (206), Penns Valley (207), Richland (202), Southern Huntingdon (169).
AAA (8) -- Central Cambria (224), Central (232), Forest Hills (240), Huntingdon (258), Juniata (230), Ligonier Valley (218), Philipsburg-Osceola (230), Tyrone (229).
AAAA (3) -- Hollidaysburg (402)*, Johnstown (324), Bellefonte (341).
AAAAA (1) -- Central Mountain (505)
AAAAAA (3) -- Altoona (933)*, State College (886), Mifflin County (617) 

*--Hollidaysburg and Altoona, while members of PIAA District 6, their football teams are conditional members of the WPIAL, and compete in their playoffs. 

Under this proposal, the PIAA hopes to cut a week off the schedule. Under its current format, the football season runs 16 total weeks, which leaves it at risk of ending the year one week before Christmas.  

This will be a topic of discussion at the PIAA Board of Directors meeting on May 20.